USDA maintains forecast for 2021-’22 corn use in ethanol

Source: By Erin Voegele, Ethanol Producer Magazine • Posted: Wednesday, October 13, 2021

The USDA maintained its forecast for 2021-’22 corn use in ethanol in its latest World Agricultural Demand and Supply Estimates report, released Oct. 12. Estimated 2020-’21 corn use for ethanol production was reduced slightly.

The USDA said the current 2021-’22 U.S. corn outlook is for slightly higher production, increased exports, lower feed and residual use, and larger ending stocks.

Corn production is forecast at 15.019 billion bushels, up 23 million on a marginal increase in yield to 176.5 bushels per acre. Corn supplies are forecast up 72 million bushels from the September WASDE on slightly higher production and increased beginning stocks based on the Sept. 30 Grain Stocks report.

Exports are raised 25 million bushels reflecting larger supplies and expectations of reduced competition from other major exporters. Projected feed and residual use is lowered 50 million bushels based on indicated disappearance during 2020-’21.

The USDA maintained its forecast for 2021-’22 corn use in ethanol at 5.2 billion bushels. Estimated 2021-’21 corn use for ethanol, however, was revised down slightly to 5.032 billion bushels, down from the estimated 5.035 billion bushels included in the September WASDE. Corn use for ethanol was at 4.857 billion bushels in 2019-’20.

Corn ending stocks for 2021- ‘22 are raised 92 million bushels due to expected increases in supply and lower forecasted use. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $5.45 per bushel.

Foreign corn production is forecast essentially unchanged as increases for the EU, Canada, Venezuela and Serbia are largely offset by declines for Ukraine, Russia and Guatemala. EU corn production is raised reflecting increases for Poland and Romania more than offset declines for France and Bulgaria. Corn production in Canada is higher reflecting favorable yield prospects for Ontario. Projected corn yields for Russia and Ukraine are lowered based on reported harvest results to date.

Corn exports are raised for India, the U.S. and the EU, with partly offsetting reductions for Ukraine, Russia and Vietnam. For 2020-’21, corn exports for Brazil are lowered for the local marketing year beginning March 2021, based on shipments through the month of September. For 2021-’22, corn imports are lowered for Vietnam, Chile, Algeria, Israel, Lebanon and Saudi Arabia, but raised for Bangladesh. Foreign corn ending stocks are higher, mostly reflecting increases for China and Mexico, with a partly offsetting reduction for Ukraine. Global corn stocks, at 301.7 million, are up 4.1 million.

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