EIA reduces 2021, 2022 ethanol production forecasts

Source: By EIA • Posted: Thursday, October 14, 2021

The U.S. Energy Information Administration made slight reductions to its forecasts for 2021 and 2022 U.S. fuel ethanol production in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released Oct. 13. Forecasts for ethanol blending, however, were maintained.

The EIA currently predicts fuel ethanol production will average 960,000 barrels per day in 2021, down slightly from a forecast of 970,000 barrels per day made in September. The agency expects fuel ethanol production to increase to 1 million barrels per day next year, down from a forecast of 1.01 million barrels per day made last month. Ethanol production averaged 910,000 barrels per day in 2020.

On a quarterly basis, ethanol production is expected to average 980,000 barrels per day during the fourth quarter of this year, falling to 970,000 barrels per day in the first quarter of 2022. Production is expected to average 1 million barrels per day during the second quarter of next year, increasing to 1.01 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and returning to 1 million barrels per day during the final quarter of the year.

Ethanol blending is expected to average 890,000 barrels per day in 2021 and 920,000 barrels per day in 2022. Both forecasts were maintained from the September STEO. Ethanol blending averaged 820,000 barrels per day in 2020.

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