EIA maintains 2018, 2019 ethanol production forecasts

Source: By Erin Voegele, Ethanol Producer Magazine • Posted: Monday, February 12, 2018

The U.S. Energy Information Administration has published the February edition of its Short-Term Energy Outlook, maintaining its January forecast that ethanol production will average 1.03 million barrels per day in both 2018 and 2019. This level is consistent with the 1.03 million barrel per day production average realized in 2017.

On a quarterly basis, the EIA currently predicts that ethanol production will average 1.02 million barrels per day during the first quarter of this year, increasing to 1.04 million barrels per day during the second, third and fourth quarters. In 2019, production is expected to fall to 1.02 million barrels per day during the first quarter, increasing to 1.04 million barrels per day for the final three quarters of the year.

The volume of ethanol blended into motor gasoline is expected to reach 960,000 barrels per day this year, up from 950,000 barrels per day in 2017. In 2019, the volume of ethanol blended is expected to increase, reaching 970,000 barrels per day.

The EIA’s most recently weekly ethanol production data shows the U.S. produced 1.057 million barrels per day of ethanol the week ending Feb. 2, up from 1.04 million barrels per day the previous week.

The EIA’s most recent monthly import data shows the U.S. imported 496,000 barrels of ethanol in in November, all from Brazil. During the same month, the U.S. exported 2.648 million barrels of ethanol, primarily to Brazil, Canada, and India.

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