EIA increases 2020, 2021 ethanol production forecasts

Source: By Ethanol Producer Magazine • Posted: Wednesday, August 12, 2020

The U.S. Energy Information Administration slightly increased its forecasts for 2020 and 2021 ethanol production in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, which was released Aug. 11. Forecasts for ethanol blending were also revised up.

The EIA currently predicts ethanol production will average 910,000 barrels per day this year, up from the 900,000-barrel-per-day prediction made in the agency’s July STEO. The EIA has also increased its forecast for 2021 ethanol production to an average of 1.01 million barrels per day, up from its July prediction of 1 million barrels per day. Production averaged approximately 1.03 million barrels per day in 2019.

On a quarterly basis, ethanol production is expected to average 930,000 barrels per day during the third quarter of this year, increasing to 970,000 barrels per day in the fourth quarter. EIA data shows ethanol production averaged 1.02 million barrels per day during the first quarter of 2020, falling to 710,000 barrels per day during the second quarter. In 2021, ethanol production is expected to average 1 million barrels per day during the first quarter, 1.01 million barrels per day during the second quarter, and 1.02 million barrels per day in the third and fourth quarters.

The EIA currently expects the U.S. to blend 840,000 barrels per day of ethanol this year, up from the July prediction of 836,000. Blending in 2021 is expected to average 930,000 barrels per day, up from the 919,000-barrel-per-day prediction made in July. Ethanol blending averaged 950,000 barrels per day in 2019.

The EIA’s most recently weekly ethanol data shows production averaged 931,000 barrels per day the week ending July 31, down from 958,000 barrels per day the previous week. Ethanol stocks were at 20.346 million barrels the week ending July 31, up form 20.272 million barrels the previous week.

The agency’s most recent monthly data shows the U.S. imported 255,000 barrels of ethanol in March, all from Brazil. The U.S. exported 1.622 million barrels of ethanol in May, primarily to India, Canada and Mexico.

|