DTN/The Progressive Farmer Survey: Optimism Rises as Temps Fall
Source: By Greg D. Horstmeier, DTN/Progressive Farmer • Posted: Monday, January 8, 2018
OMAHA (DTN) — Perhaps the old adage “I’d rather have a good crop and lower prices than high prices and no crop,” was taking hold as 2017 came to a close.
That’s one explanation of why farmers would feel increasingly better about their conditions despite flat grain prices and the signs of lower livestock prices.
Farmers answering the latest DTN/The Progressive Farmer Agricultural Confidence Index survey told of increasing optimism, posting an overall score of 113, up 9 points from August and 15 points higher than the “Trump Bump” survey of a year ago.
More importantly, farmers’ attitude about their current situation was twice as positive as November 2016, despite growing concerns from ag lenders and little end in sight to flat commodity prices.
Since 2010, DTN has surveyed farmers three times a year to determine their opinions about their current economic situation and about that situation in the year to come. Farmers are surveyed in spring prior to Midwest corn and soybean planting; in August just ahead of harvest; and in mid-November, as the harvest is in and farmers prepare for year-end taxes and planning.
Index levels above 100 are considered optimistic, those less than 100 are viewed as a pessimistic attitude as compared to baseline scores when the index began.
Calls for the latest ACI survey were made Nov. 12 through Dec. 11.
Each survey asks a series of financial and economic questions to create two scores — one for how farmers’ rate their present situation, while the second score reveals attitudes about future expectations. Those two scores combined create the overall Agricultural Confidence Index.
For the most recent survey, farmers put their present situation at 95, up 19 points from August, and more than twice the score of 44 in November 2016. Their expectation score is 123, up 3 from August and down 4 from a year ago, or essentially flat year-on-year.
The point that the index is based on the combination of present and future scores is important, as the trend in the difference of those two scores is perhaps most noteworthy this winter.
Since mid-2016, farmers have been hopeful, the present score has been below 100, sometimes significantly below, while the optimism about the future more than makes up for that, keeping the overall ACI in neutral to positive territory.