Corn for ethanol down, soybean exports up

Source: By Tom Doran, Field Editor, Agri News • Posted: Monday, June 22, 2015

WASHINGTON — Season-average price projections were unchanged with higher corn stocks and lower soybean supplies reflected in the latest crop balance sheets.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s world supply and demand estimates released June 10 raised corn beginning stocks for 2015-2016 by 25 million bushels due to a reduction in the old crop forecast for corn use in ethanol production.

The increased corn balance was based on data reported in the grain crushings and co-products production report.

Corn ending stocks for 2015-2016 are projected at 1.771 billion bushels, up 25 million bushels, the same as for beginning stocks.

Projected corn production for 2015-2016 is unchanged at 13.630 billion bushels, 4 percent below last year’s record.

The range for the 2015-2016 season-average farm price is unchanged at $3.20 to $3.80 per bushel, compared with the 2014-2015 range of $3.55 to $3.75 per bushel, which also is unchanged this month.

Foreign coarse grain supplies for 2015-2016 are projected up 2.8 million tons, mostly reflecting larger 2014-2015 production and carryout for Brazil.

Brazil corn production for 2014-2015 was increased 3 million tons to a near-record 81 million with higher area reported for the second or “safrinha” crop that will be harvested over the coming months. Yields also are projected higher, reflecting extended rainfall through May, well beyond the normal end of the rainy season in central west Brazil.

Global 2015-2016 coarse grain consumption is raised slightly supported by higher expected corn trade.

Global corn ending stocks for 2015-2016 are projected 3.3 million tons higher mostly on the higher stocks expected for Brazil. Small reductions in corn stocks for Russia and the European Union offset most of the increase projected.

10 Million More

This month’s U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2015-2016 include lower beginning stocks, slightly higher crush and lower ending stocks.

Lower beginning stocks reflect higher crush and export projections for 2014-2015. Soybean crush for 2014-2015 was raised 10 million bushels to 1.815 billion, reflecting an increase in projected soybean meal domestic disappearance, which is partly offset by reduced exports of soybean meal.

Higher soybean meal domestic disappearance reflects stronger-than-expected use for the marketing year to date.

Soybean exports are projected at 1.810 billion bushels, up 10 million reflecting outstanding sales and shipments through May.

Soybean ending stocks for 2014-2015 are projected at 330 million bushels, down 20 million from last month’s estimate. Ending stocks for 2015-2016 were reduced 25 million bushels to 475 million.

The 2015-2016 season-average price for soybeans is projected at $8.25 to $9.75 per bushel, unchanged from last month. Soybean meal prices also are unchanged at $305 to $345 per short ton. Soybean oil prices are projected at 30.5 to 33.5 cents per pound, up 1 cent at the midpoint.

Global oilseed production for 2015-2016 is projected at 531.9 million tons, up 0.7 million from last month. Argentina soybean production for 2014-2015 was increased 1 million tons to 59.5 million, mainly on increased harvested area. Brazil’s production is projected at 94.5 million tons compared to 86.7 million last year.

Global soybean supply and use changes include increased crush and lower stocks for both 2014-2015 and 2015-2016.

Brazil Factor

Brazil’s soybean crush, meal production and domestic disappearance for 2014-2015 are raised based on recently released official data. With the lower stocks in Brazil only partly offset by higher stocks in Argentina, global soybean stocks for 2015-2016 are projected at 93.2 million tons, down 3 million from last month.

Projected U.S. wheat supplies for 2015-2016 were hiked this month on both increased beginning stocks and larger winter wheat production.

Beginning stocks are higher with a 5 million-bushel reduction in 2014-2015 exports partly offset by a 2 million-bushel reduction in imports.

Projected production for 2015-2016 is up 34 million bushels mainly on improved prospects for the hard red winter wheat crop in the Central Plains following the late-season rains. However, early harvest reports indicate that some areas receiving excessive rainfall have lodging and increased disease pressure.

Feed use for 2015-2016 was raised 15 million bushels to 195 million, and ending stocks increased 21 million bushels to 814 million. These would be the largest ending stocks since 2010-2011.

The season-average farm price is reduced 10 cents per bushel on both ends to $4.40 to $5.40.

Global wheat supplies for 2015-2016 are raised 2.1 million tons as a 2.6 million-ton increase in production is partly offset by a 0.6 million-ton reduction in beginning stocks.

At 202.4 million tons, global stocks are down 0.9 million ton from last month, but still the largest since 2009-2010.